ACUS02 KWNS 260551
SWODY2
SPC AC 260549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the
coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday,
as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface
high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern
half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong
large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and
Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No
severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the
continental United States.

..Broyles.. 10/26/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 271643
SWODY2
SPC AC 271641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of
the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across
the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central
CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying
low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow
(Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic
forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered
thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific
Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level
warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday
evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level
jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development.
Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of
the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the
Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough
offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are
expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi
Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern
Plains.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the
eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains
as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and
convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective
initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
within the mid to late evening, where instability should be
sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is
expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with
additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern
Plains.

The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable
area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri
Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings
near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping
inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective
shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail.
Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be
elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the
front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell
that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce
isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a
marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening
low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and
lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an
outlook upgrade at this time.

..Broyles.. 10/28/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 290555
SWODY2
SPC AC 290553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are
expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains
extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and
Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over
the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is
forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday
afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward
into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri
Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over
much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected
to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending
northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated
severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during
the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to
take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster
or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas
extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow,
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich
low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable
for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area,
NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z,
with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This
environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and
severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible
with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in
size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells
and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the
convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a
wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most
favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms
embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line.
Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily
discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe
wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop
southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A
severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and
perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through
the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 300556
SWODY2
SPC AC 300554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts, will be
possible Thursday afternoon along a narrow corridor from the Sabine
River Valley north-northeastward into far southern Lower Michigan.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 70 to 80
knot mid-level speed max, will move northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization in most areas by midday. Convection is expected to
initiate along and ahead the front during the late morning as
surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorms should gradually increase
in coverage in the afternoon, moving eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

Model solutions appear to present two scenarios. The first solution,
which is depicted by the NAM, initiates convection near the front
around midday from east-central Texas north-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, with a second north-to-south band of storms
developing much further east in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
second solution, which is depicted by the ECMWF, focuses most of the
convection further east near the center of the low-level moisture
corridor in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Strong outflow from
the previous night's convection is forecast to surge southeastward
across much of central and east Texas Thursday morning, which could
favor the second scenario, with an effective frontal boundary much
further east.

The severe threat should be concentrated along and near the axis of
the strongest low-level flow, which is forecast to be in the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
near the moist axis in the afternoon have MLCAPE peaking from around
500 J/kg in the lower Ohio Valley to 1500 J/kg in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along much
of the moist axis, where low-level lapse rates could peak near 7
C/km in areas that heat up the most. This environment will likely
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with
the stronger and more organized multicells. A marginal tornado
threat may also develop, mainly from western Tennessee
south-southwestward into northern Louisiana, where the combination
of instability and shear is forecast to be maximized, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 301728
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally
severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon,
from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle
Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward
toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the
period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an
associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the
period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas
Coast.

...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an
advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the
southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With
the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly
northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing
ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly
the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the
Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more
favorable kinematics.

Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to
cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to
produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels.
Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours,
after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe
potential is expected.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010546
SWODY2
SPC AC 010545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the
Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the
southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles,
within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A
semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge
of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal
heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak,
suggesting localized strong gusts early.

A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident
over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in
the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced
baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for
boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream
of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern
Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should
overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid
to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear
immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop
and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for
golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse
rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple
tornadoes may develop as well.

Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic
profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening
increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level
rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While
convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the
spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection,
the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a
low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian
Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Synopsis...
Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the
western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system
shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into
the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls
will occur across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas
eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of
the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to
persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat
northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded
by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively
reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent,
regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the
period.

...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into
central and northern Oklahoma...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern
Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the
southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in
convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to
occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely
evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases.
Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent
into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds
of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally
strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a
tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the
overnight hours.

..Goss.. 11/01/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 020553
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday
Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes
parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto
the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest
Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of
the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will
also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of
the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into
the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous
shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the
central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional
cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into
western north TX.

...Central to southern Great Plains...
A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple
rounds of severe potential anticipated.

A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks
southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic
zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in
suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late
morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage
midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone
that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently
indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with
embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies.
Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be
favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still,
this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH
as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some
embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection
should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent
increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these
multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible.

A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may
develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient
will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH
will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat.

Convective development along the dryline near the central High
Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects
of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined
and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will
be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or
two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise,
some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE
and north KS.

..Grams.. 11/02/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 040628
SWODY2
SPC AC 040627

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO
LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on
Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys,
and central to southern Wisconsin.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some
of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast
portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by
mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be
maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating
convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and
large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the
day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the
front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong
gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of
the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to
diminish from south to north during the evening.

Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for
PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to
remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday.

...Central/southern WI...
A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is
evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface
cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI.
Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic
surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper
50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy
immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur
once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in
whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability.
Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection,
low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a
hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the
eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended
farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow
relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds
veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement.
This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating
cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid
increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer
band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress
west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a
few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as
tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as
low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes
confined to the Gulf.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 060651
SWODY2
SPC AC 060650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning in the late
afternoon Thursday across parts of west and central Texas. The most
likely corridor for large hail will be over a part of west Texas on
Thursday evening/night.

...West/central TX...
A mid/upper low will drift east across AZ/NM through much of the day
Thursday. By Thursday night, it should accelerate as an attendant
mid-level jet becomes confined to the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a surface ridge will initially nose down the southern
High Plains from an anticyclone over the central High Plains, this
will eventually lose amplitude. Weak cyclogenesis should occur late
in the period along an inverted surface trough in parts of west TX.

A persistent increase in low-level moisture from the western Gulf
will return northwestward through the period. While some elevated
convection will be possible during the day, initially from central
to northwest TX, the bulk of convective development should occur in
the evening/night as the low-level jet broadly intensifies. This
will be coincident with a gradual increase in mid-level height falls overspreading west TX Thursday night.

A mesoscale corridor of relatively greater supercell potential
appears evident during the evening/night. This appears centered on
parts of the Lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin and the western
Edwards Plateau regions near the surface trough. While low-level
lapse rates should be weak, strong southwesterly speed shear in the
mid to upper levels will be favorable for a primary threat of large
hail with a mix of cells/small clusters. An abrupt cutoff to
surface-based severe convection is expected to the north/west of
this corridor, especially as weak cyclogenesis occurs. While
consistency has increased in guidance relative to 24 hours, where
exactly this demarcation is will likely be modulated by how
widespread elevated convection becomes during the evening to night.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas.

...TX...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly
track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding.
A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into
central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially
across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return
north of the Red River.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could
accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be.
Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of
TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential
heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus
suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should
occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could
foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35
corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE
is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support
potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary
threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does
differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes
east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a
greater severe threat may be.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during
the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat
will likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090554
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper
Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley
by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward,
will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and
remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level
warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms
from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be
possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse
rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude
severe storms.

Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly
low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday night.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Southeast...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the
Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a
limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become
increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal
flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting
entirely offshore around midday.

A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving
convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf
Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated
thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during
the afternoon.

...Western WA/OR and northern CA...
A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should
move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse
rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave
impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support
scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently
deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening.
Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland.

..Grams.. 11/10/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110644
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern
High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening.

...Southern High/Rolling Plains...
Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a
full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This
trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary
embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four
Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality
downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence
of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will
still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s
surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper
50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of
weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening
surface trough.

Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become
sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry
mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable
convective development is expected during the evening, as
large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and
strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable
speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a
few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and
this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe
threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist
east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night.

..Grams.. 11/11/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120658
SWODY2
SPC AC 120657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST...FOR COASTAL WA/OR/NORTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from
the Great Plains toward the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday.
In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a weak surface low will
move from the east-central Plains toward the Great Lakes region, as
a trailing cold front moves through parts of the middle/lower MS
Valley. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will progress
farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave
moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast region...
Rich low-level moisture (with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints) is
forecast to gradually spread northward across the lower MS Valley
region from later in the D1/Tuesday period into D2/Wednesday. Weak
lapse rates will tend to limit instability, while stronger
mid/upper-level flow will generally remain north of the richer
moisture. However, deep-layer shear will likely become at least
marginally supportive of organized storms, while some enhancement to
low-level flow/shear is forecast as the shortwave trough to the
north glances the region. This evolution could support a few
marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon
and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a
tornado or two.

Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
rates and generally marginal MUCAPE.

...WA/OR/northern CA coasts...
Cooling temperatures aloft will support weak destabilization in the
vicinity of the WA/OR/northern CA coasts through the day on
Wednesday. While convection will be rather low-topped, instability
may become sufficient (with SBCAPE potentially in the 200-500 J/kg
range) for occasional thunderstorms. The strongest low-level flow
will precede the primary destabilization, but persistent and rather
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow could support modestly
organized line segments and/or weakly rotating cells, with a threat
of isolated severe convective gusts and perhaps some small hail. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though the favored location
(if any) of any longer-lived rotating cells remains uncertain at
this time.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130701
SWODY2
SPC AC 130659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central and northeast
Gulf Coasts early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the
Carolinas Thursday evening and night. Organized severe potential
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley is forecast to dig southeastward on Thursday and
evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to deepen
Thursday night along a frontal boundary near the Coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward and amplify as it approaches the Pacific Coast and
eventually moves inland.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts
of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, aided by the mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and attendant
low-level jet. Low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken through
the day, which will tend to result in less convective organization
with time. However, if organized convection from late on
D1/Wednesday can persist into Thursday morning, then rich low-level
moisture and sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear could support
a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Probabilities may eventually be needed if it appears that some
severe threat may continue from overnight Wednesday into the first
part of Thursday.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of appreciable
surface moistening/destabilization near the Coastal Carolinas, as
the surface low deepens and tracks east-northeastward into Friday
morning. However, there appears to be some potential for the
effective warm front to overlap parts of coastal NC and the Outer
Banks during the evening, as stronger deep-layer flow and ascent
overspread the region. Increasingly widespread precipitation will
tend to limit destabilization, but favorable wind profiles will
support organized convective potential where modest buoyancy can
develop. Probabilities may eventually be needed near the coast and
Outer Banks, if confidence increases regarding the potential for
isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado later in the forecast
period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140640
SWODY2
SPC AC 140638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on
Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day,
as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this
trough expected through the forecast period.

Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to
generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential
may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the
low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern
CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough.
Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any
general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150650
SWODY2
SPC AC 150648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central
Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will
be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a
corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the
upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a
severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday
and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180634
SWODY2
SPC AC 180633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the
region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the
Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected from near the front eastward across the much
of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong
low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe
storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in
the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of
low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over
northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast
across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively
tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max
will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max
will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern
Appalachians.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the
Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of
Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop
near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the
Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day.

...Carolinas...
Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the
eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the
cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough
swings east, with very weak instability developing.

Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence
inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of
appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong
storms are not expected.

...Florida...
Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold
front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula,
it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such,
despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the
western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective.

...Ohio and Vicinity...
A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the
upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday.
Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the
cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt
ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely,
a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures
aloft.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature
gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly
weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over
the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving
ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.

Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.

The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move out of the northeastern
states, with a weak upper ridge moving across the Plains and toward
the MS Valley. To the west, a large upper trough will continue
eastward across the Great Basin and much of the central and northern
Rockies. A lead wave will likely pivot northeastward toward the
Dakotas late.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, maintaining stable conditions.
Low pressure will exist ahead of a cold front from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by late in the day.

A low chance of a few lightning flashes may exist along the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold temperatures aloft may result in weak
buoyancy. Otherwise, minimal activity will be possible over parts of
central ID and vicinity as lapse rates steepen.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230548
SWODY2
SPC AC 230546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper trough will depart the northeastern states as an
elongated mid/upper level speed max extends across the Four Corners
states and into the Plains. This feature will phase with an upper
low/trough extending from southern SK/MB into the northern Plains,
with ridging over the East.

A low pressure trough will exist ahead of the cold front from the
upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains around 00Z, extending
from Lower MI into northern TX by 12Z Monday.

Ahead of this front, southerly winds will result in a batch of low
60s F dewpoints from eastern TX toward AR, but the air mass should
remain capped with little of any convection along the intersecting
cold front.

Elsewhere, cool air aloft will remain over much of the northwestern
states, with little if any instability to support thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps
across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow
aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave
moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin.

In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located
over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z.
This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest
Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday.

Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F
dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and
western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature,
especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther
southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg.

Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift
along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 250549
SWODY2
SPC AC 250547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal across the CONUS on Tuesday, as
a negative-tilt shortwave trough moves into Quebec, and a cold front
progresses across the remainder of the Southeast.

Showers may linger along the front from the southern Appalachians to
the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, and a lighting flash or two cannot
be ruled out over the southern AL to GA portion of the front.
However, any convection should be short lived.

Behind this initial system, the flow regime will become zonal into
Wed morning, though a new trough may start to amplify across the
Four Corners states. At that time, instability sufficient for
thunderstorms appears unlikely.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will
persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the
western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into
southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With
the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night.

A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with
lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but
overall coverage should remain limited.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 301716
SWODY2
SPC AC 301714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of
the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is
reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying
the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the
relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates
and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled
out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake
Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too
limited for General Thunderstorm highlights.

Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a
weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this
activity should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 010503
SWODY2
SPC AC 010501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental polar air mass will be in place across the CONUS
on Monday. The only exception is across far south Texas. Easterly
flow will strengthen across the Gulf on Sunday night and Monday as a
strong anticyclone moves into the central CONUS. This will cause mid
to upper 60s dewpoints to advect inland across far south Texas.
Meager instability may develop which could result in a few isolated thunderstorms. However, this is more likely offshore where somewhat
greater instability is likely.

..Bentley.. 12/01/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 020702
SWODY2
SPC AC 020701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast and into
portions of East Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move off the east coast on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will progress east in its wake with a strong
anticyclone moving from the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians
through the weekend.

Easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico on the southern periphery of
the anticyclone will result in some moisture making it inland across
far south Texas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the
immediate coastal areas during the morning and early afternoon
hours. As low-level flow becomes southerly and strengthens somewhat,
moisture advection around 1 km will result in increasing elevated
instability. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible in this
warm-air advection regime early Wednesday morning.

..Bentley.. 12/02/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 030636
SWODY2
SPC AC 030634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss
on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A large, upper-level trough will move into southern Ontario and the
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday with a very strong mid-level jet
along the western periphery of this trough. As this occurs, a
compact low-level jet is forecast to develop across east Texas and
move into Louisiana and far western Mississippi during the evening
and overnight hours. As low-level southerly flow increases across
east Texas, low-level moisture will lead to modest elevated
instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across this region for much of the period. However,
instability appears too weak too warrant any substantial severe
weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/03/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 040651
SWODY2
SPC AC 040649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the
central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico
during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the
Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal
instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The
front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the
overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a mid-level trough will slowly drift eastward along the Arizona/Mexico border. Stronger mid-level flow will round the base
of this trough Friday afternoon and emerge into the southern Plains
Friday night and early Saturday. Some moisture return will occur
above the surface front which will result in weak instability across
Texas and perhaps into southeast New Mexico. As stronger mid-level
flow emerges across the southern Plains, isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico and
Far West Texas, to parts of central Texas. However, weak instability
should keep any severe weather threat limited.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 12/07/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to
extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial
evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves
from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the
southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the
front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the
period over northern LA/west-central MS.

This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad
warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints
likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad
area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector
throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse
rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow
will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday
night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential.
Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it
moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However,
minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability
potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall
severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored
by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern
High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the
parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the
mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt
500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians
early Wednesday morning.

A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to
move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some
guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along
the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to
move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s
by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest
secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves
through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning
low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor
lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be
strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper
updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the
developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into
southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late
afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment
could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the
northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.

...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough
moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this
jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to
result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the
region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this
environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong
gust or two.

Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks
vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer
shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms
could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how
far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm
mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of
surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New
England on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada
southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf
early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base
of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the
parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying.
Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern
periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout
the day.

An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from
northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold
front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving
off the East Coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the
Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching
cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into
southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy,
with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line
is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection
is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent
aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs
on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it
occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential
for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts.
Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust
kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air
capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the
forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New
England where buoyancy is expected to be very low.

Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within
the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent
precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some
guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms
develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over
coastal NC and the Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 110624
SWODY2
SPC AC 110622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian
Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday.
Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is
expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the
Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface
ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated.

Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to
progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while
enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from
southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is
anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave
trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this
shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the
Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated
with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and
Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear
will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the
ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas
Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the
period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex
and central TX by Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be
maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX
toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern
MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH
Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS
Valley through the period.

Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused
north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture
across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may
produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO
Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer
flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based
instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent,
should limit overall severe potential on Monday.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 160633
SWODY2
SPC AC 160631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex/Ozarks Vicinity...

An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity on Tuesday. A 500 mb jet max around 50-70 kt will
become oriented from eastern OK into the Ohio Valley/lower Great
Lakes area after 06z, and stronger height falls are not expected to
overspread the region until the nighttime hours. At the surface, 50s
to low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected across south/east TX into
the Mid-South vicinity. A strong cold front will track southeast
across KS/OK during the evening, and by 06z be positioned from
northern AR into southeast OK and north-central TX. This boundary
will become a focus for increasing isentropic ascent and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the overnight/early Wednesday period.

Neutral height tendencies will likely suppress convection during the
day across much of the area. As convection develops along the
advancing cold front overnight, uncertainty remains regarding any
surface-based instability overlapping with stronger vertical shear
(which decreases rapidly with southward extent). Forecast soundings
vary across forecast guidance, but at least weak elevated
instability is expected driven by cooling aloft. Stronger elevated
cores could produce small hail, given forecast lapse rates around
6.8-7 C/km amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes (especially from
southeast OK into AR). Overall, severe potential appears quite
conditional for the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Will hold
off on including low-end hail probabilities, though a Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk may be needed in later outlooks depending on
forecast trends.

...FL Peninsula...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a moist airmass
and at least weak instability overspread the region. Onshore,
easterly low-level flow will provide convergence along an inverted
surface trough. Given sufficient destabilization, this will support
development of thunderstorms moving onshore through evening. Weak
0-6 km bulk shear (less than 20 kt) will preclude organized
convection, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170632
SWODY2
SPC AC 170631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast TX to the TN Valley...

Showers and elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the
surface cold front Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings show poor
low-level lapse rates and little surface-based instability. However,
up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE will be present, courtesy of cool midlevel
temperatures and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer flow is
forecast to remain mostly unidirectional and parallel to the front,
suggesting convective undercutting by the boundary/outflows. While
some briefly organized structure may persist the first hour or two
of the forecast period, convection is expected to rapidly decrease
in intensity with southeast extent across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast
states. This is largely due to more modest boundary-layer moisture
and weakening vertical shear across MS/AL.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...

Isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough/surface
front will increase across the region through day. However,
large-scale ascent will remain weak until late, with the vorticity
maxima trailing well behind the surface front. Nevertheless, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the low-level
warm-advection regime, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. Forecast guidance varies in the depiction of the low-level thermodynamics and degree of destabilization. Though some support
for an organized storm or two is plausible, given around 750-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt. While a
strong storm could produce gusty winds or even small hail (given
somewhat elongated/straight hodographs and cool midlevel temps),
forecast confidence regarding severe potential remains fairly low.
Will refrain from introducing low-end/Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though an outlook area may be required
in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180550
SWODY2
SPC AC 180549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Florida...

A shortwave upper trough within the area of broader eastern CONUS
troughing will be oriented from the Carolinas to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Thursday morning. This system will shift east across FL
and offshore the Atlantic coast through 00z. At the surface, a cold
front located over north FL early in the day will develop southward
across the Peninsula. Low-level flow will be veered/northerly ahead
of the front, resulting in little low-level convergence.
Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will remain well north of
the Peninsula. While weak destabilization is forecast (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), mainly over the southern Peninsula, poor lapse rates and
warm midlevel temperatures will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential. Most CAMs and calibrated thunder guidance also indicate
little thunderstorm activity. Will maintain 10 percent general
thunder probabilities for the southeast FL coast, but even that may
be generous.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a
shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms
mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during
the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could
occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast.

Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 220701
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify from the central Rockies
to the south-central High Plains on Monday. Weak surface wave
development is expected across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a
modest increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as weak
buoyancy develops with an upper trough approaching the coast and an inland-moving frontal band.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

$$
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