ACUS11 KWNS 211938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211938
TXZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...Texas South Plains into Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211938Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to potentially scattered storms may
become briefly severe and be capable of large hail and marginally
severe wind gusts. Weak shear and modest thermodynamics should
preclude watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms have developed near the
intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front. The cold front
has been moving to southwest around 15 kt. The strongest storms will
likely occur within the surface trough. Activity along the cold
front will have a tendency to be undercut and may not be more than
briefly severe. Mid-level lapse rates inferred from the 18Z observed
AMA/MAF soundings would suggest large hail will be possible along
with marginally severe wind gusts. However, somewhat cool
temperatures and weak shear (noted on the KLBB VAD) will otherwise
limit the severe potential.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4eS35ACycdutPGxfNVG-im4NefoebN5KAL7ghrt1jhVsjr4E1cmPIbSSei7vdNtMUjt5cZib1UlT5MffOfmAsOdnRnw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32640183 33460284 33900288 34230230 34060163 33340079
32800005 32609996 32350035 32290102 32640183

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)