ABNT20 KNHC 131134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for
development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected
to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual
development by the middle to later portion of this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 141126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are
currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level
winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a
more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to
latter portion of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 151105
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late
this week as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward
over the subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

ABNT20 KNHC 161116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development in the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 350 miles east of Bermuda have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions could support gradual development of the system during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form during
that time. The system is forecast to move slowly today, and then
possibly turn southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. By
Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
favorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 181428
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update information on the area of low pressure
located southwest of the Azores (AL99) and to remove AL98 from the outlook.

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Recent satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
are becoming better organized in association with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. In
addition, it appears that a well-defined center is developing. If
these current trends continue, a tropical depression could form as
soon as later this afternoon. The system is expected to move slowly
over the next several days remaining to the southwest of the Azores.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Snell/Blake/Mahoney

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ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the
center of a low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the western Azores since yesterday. A short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph,
but remaining well to the southwest of the Azores. Upper-level winds
are forecast to become less conducive for development beginning
late Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles
southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

ABNT20 KNHC 211742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off western Africa by
Wednesday. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves near the Cabo Verde Islands later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

ABNT20 KNHC 221137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa
tomorrow. Although environmental conditions are not expected to
be particularly conducive, some slow development of this system is
possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far
eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas
of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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