ACUS11 KWNS 121721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121721=20
NYZ000-122115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Areas affected...coastal Lake Ontario in western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 121721Z - 122115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates approaching 2 inches/hr, may
accompany the ongoing snow band across eastern Lake Ontario through
the early to mid afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...A lake effect snowband is in progress across the
eastern shore of Lake Ontario, with periods of at least moderate
snowfall rates noted via surface observations. 17Z mesoanalysis
shows deep-layer flow fields oriented roughly parallel to the lake
axis, supporting a long fetch of onshore moisture. Continued diurnal
heating, however weak, is encouraging 8 C/km boundary-layer lapse
rates given cooling aloft, and this may support convective snowfall
into the afternoon hours. While mostly 1 inch/hr snowfall rates are
likely, a couple instances of 2 inch/hr rates may occur.

..Squitieri.. 12/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4i-Myi9XL4LeliBeyN7LX8LHfIlCYjymTauWAqDU6JW0MwJLLkIoItzPhb18v2D4jk8Jn00Zi= ALL9aA_0YzoTNFC5O8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 44127627 44247564 44287493 44177465 43927510 43867553
43857581 43887614 43917624 44127627=20


=3D =3D =3D
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