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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2255

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 10 11:35:36 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 101135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101134=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

    Areas affected...parts of eastern Louisiana into southern
    Mississippi and southwest Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101134Z - 101400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or locally damaging gust may occur
    during the next several hours. Coverage of severe is not expected to
    warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A slow-moving cold front currently extends from
    southwest LA into central and northeast MS, with generally weak
    surface winds. However, storms have increased in coverage near and
    just ahead of the boundary within the moistening air mass.=20

    Surface analysis shows dewpoints in the upper 60s F to near 70 F,
    along with 1-1.5 mb 2-hr pressure falls into southwest MS. Winds
    around 850 mb are around 30 kt out of the southwest, with 0-1 km SRH
    across the warm sector generally from 100 to 150 m2/s2. MUCAPE per
    objective analysis is generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range.

    In aggregate, the marginal instability, shear, and ascent may remain
    sufficient for a low risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging
    gusts over the next few hours as storms develop east/northeast
    across MS and into western AL. Instability may not be strong enough
    to support very long-lived supercells, but a QLCS-type tornado may
    occur in association with the stronger outflows.

    ..Jewell.. 12/10/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_1i6thqfH10_20jy28oT43RoFERY5v3Ofp7WE_EDSAvcWN6csObg0wXjXjU5O9nHHlhYr97oH= nK37GVM1hBz3LGc5tk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30309133 31769032 32218966 32708834 32628768 32248746
    31898755 31128830 30319065 30239105 30309133=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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